Everything Is Changing: A Look at the Future While Tripping Down Memory Lane

After contemplating operating systems at length, I started rethinking the whole thing and I began to wonder if operating systems will be relevant a couple of years from now. Because everything is changing.

My current primary computer.

Change is hardly new to the world of computers and technology. Change is what drives the industry. Change is how come you need to buy new software, new hardware, new operating systems. Change can make things work better, but it’s not unusual to discover that your “upgrade” is a downgrade because what used to work no longer does. You pays your money, you takes your chances.

I grew to adulthood in a pre-computer society. I started working before cable TV, when encyclopedias were huge heavy sets of books and a computer was gigantic and needed a whole building for itself. It ran on punch cards and used weird languages like COBOL and FORTRAN. Even decades later, personal computers were just one step removed from a doorstop, floppy disks were 5-1/2 inches across and really flopped.

Those early machines (personal units, not mainframes) — I hesitate to call them computers — didn’t do much. They didn’t have hard drives. There was no software and no user-friendly interface. I don’t think the concept existed. No WYSIWYG. What you saw was a black screen with lurid green letters that made you feel like you were going blind after an hour or two.

Then … everything changed.

First there was Apple and then Windows. Windows didn’t work very well at first, but soon enough, it got better. And then better again.

There were different players and more operating systems in the beginning. Wang and DEC plus a crazy quilt of dedicated word processors and computers made by Commodore, Atari and many others. For a while, I had an Amstrad, a European machine that was almost a computer, kind an intelligent typewriter with a screen that spit out paper.

This was the Amstrad!

Then, everything changed again. Computers started to really do stuff. It was magic!

I worked on this machine in Israel using the first word processing tool, WordStar.

For a while, it seemed like everything changed every day. One day, there was a thing called the Internet. I had to buy and install Netscape to access it. Once connected, there wasn’t much going on, but it was cool to just roam around and see what there was do see.

You could send electronic mail — email — if you had a friends with computers. You sent them messages over old copper telephone wires and everything happened in slow motion.

My first personal computer.

Just getting on to the Internet could take … well, let me put it this way. Turn on the computer. Turn on the modem. Go to the kitchen. Prepare dinner. Cook dinner. Serve dinner. Eat dinner. Clean up everything. By the time you got back to your computer, you might have actually managed to connect to something. Or not.

My first PC. I think everyone had one of these at some point!

Then suddenly AOL popped into existence. I got a really fast modem. It ran at a whopping 2400 BPS! Imagine that. I worked in California from my home office in Boston. Cool! Telecommuting was the cat’s pajamas.

By the time my granddaughter was born in 1996, everybody had a computer or two. In her world, computers have always been fast, the Internet has always been the world’s shopping mall. Ebay and Amazon are no big deal.

My old 486 ran for 10 years. It wasn’t fast, but it sure was durable.

At age three, she could run basic applications. For her, it’s like electricity was to us: something you use that is always there and always was. I’m sure she can’t imagine a world without it. It’s hard for me to remember that world and I certainly would not want to go back there.

Memories of days of yore … but not halcyon I fear,

For a brief interval, the rate of change slowed. We drew a collective breath and didn’t have to buy new computers for a couple of years. High speed connections arrived, though most home users didn’t have it right away. Everything kept getting faster and soon, with cable modems, no one could even remember what it was like to try to get onto the Internet using an old telephone line.

Commodore 64 – the most popular computer ever produced.  More than 30 million of them sold.  I had one of these, too.

Every time you looked around, there was a  new generation of processors, bigger and faster hard drives, amazing super high definition monitors and speaker systems to knock your socks off.

The Internet became a world-sized shopping mall and overnight, catalogue shopping became website cruising. The Internet was a world unto itself; I played bridge in real-time with a partner who lived on an island off the Pacific coast.

We have computers all over the house and what isn’t a computer is run by a computer or contains a mini computer … microwave ovens, smartphones, digital cameras and GPS units. I personally have three computers — in my office, living room and bedroom. My husband has two. My granddaughter has 3, but I think a couple of them don’t work any more. My son has two, my daughter in law has one but if she wants another, we have a spares and she can just grab one.

Eight computers are in daily use and only 5 people live here. I feel that we will soon need to get computers for each of the dogs. For all I know, whenever we are out, they go on-line and order stuff. I’m sure Bonnie the Scottie has at least a thousand Facebook friends.

A brief interruption of cable service leaves us wandering around like wraiths, without form or function. Five of the seven primary computers are less than 2 years old  so I figured we were set for a few years at least … but then everything started changing. Again.

Today, it’s all about “the cloud.” It’s still the same old Internet, but “cloud” is the “in” word for stuff stored on external servers. We’re going back to where we began, to using stripped down computers with no hard drives. Instead, everything is stored on someone else’s computer — out there. In the “cloud.” Our data might be anywhere. We have no way of knowing where it lives.

Am I the only one who finds this unnerving?

I can see advantages. When you eliminate memory sucking operating systems and cumbersome installed applications, your computer will run much faster. Start-up is instantaneous because your computer doesn’t have to load services and applications. You don’t have to maintain and upgrade big expensive applications and volumes of data. You won’t need ever bigger hard drives, more memory and video RAM. You wind up with faster computers that are less expensive and easier to maintain. It’s a win-win, right?

Or is it?

How much do you trust your Internet service provider?

If your cable company has a bad day or the servers on which you store your critical data go down — even for a short while — you have nothing. As long as everything works like it’s supposed to, it’s hunky dory, but Murphy hasn’t left the building yet.

Whatever can go wrong, will go wrong, and will do so at the worst possible time.

Maybe it’s my age showing, but I would prefer to have data on hard drives that I control. That I own.

The idea of entrusting everything —  from my photographs to the manuscript of my book — to an unknown server somewhere in the world scares the Hell out of me. What if the building in which the server storing my stuff burns down? Gets hit by a terrorist attack? Taken down by hackers? You have no way of knowing what country your data is in, how stable its government is, or how good an infrastructure it maintains. You financial data could be in Pakistan, Indonesia, or Kuala Lampur. Or next door.

Is there a compromise possible? Because when I think about entrusting everything to a cloud, I begin to twitch.

How many times have you been unable to access a web page because servers are busy or crashed? The times when their — or your — servers are inaccessible because of maintenance, repair or upgrade. Or those ubiquitous hackers. What if you need a critical piece of data from a server while its offline? It does happen.

My bank was hacked and they had to send me a new bank card. Several places I shop were hacked and I had to redo my accounts because they’d been compromised.

My laptop. Today’s super little machine.

If your ISP is down, you are out of business. If you think your cable company has you by the throat now, how much worse will it be if everything you need to run your life and business is dependent on their services?

Facebook and Google already have trouble keeping up with the demands on their resources. How will they manage when they have thousands of times more data and tens of millions of users depending on them for everything from email and applications to data retrieval?

Those of you who are old enough to remember the great Northeast power blackout in the mid 1960s know what I mean when I say that overloaded systems can go down like dominoes. I am all in favor working together with my fellow human beings throughout the world, but at a certain point, when does inter-dependency make us excessively vulnerable?

If you put too many eggs in the basket, when the basket falls — as it inevitably will — the eggs break.

You don’t have an omelet; you just have a mess of busted eggs.

Addendum: A Personal Note

I worked for more than 35 years in a development environment. That was my world and although I’m not an engineer or developer, I know what’s behind a user interface. For example, modern word processors embed commands in text, but behind the interface, it’s entering the same commands I entered directly on the huge IBM mainframe. It’s faster and prettier to use a word processor and you get the bonus of being able to see how your document will look when printed, but it’s just elegant wrapping on an old familiar box.

My concern is not the graphical user interface (GUI) that overlays our computer (regardless of operating system), but that we are being herded toward using external storage over which we have no direct control for everything from our bank records to personal correspondence.

For businesses and individuals, data is a very big deal. The biggest deal. Our national economy is information and service-based. We no longer make “things” here. Our product is information. Data.

If that’s too abstract for you, personally, I have twenty years of photography and a lifetime of writing stored on CDs, DVDs, and external hard drives. I won’t entrust this stuff to an unknown server somewhere “out there.” It’s too important to me and too unimportant to anyone else. 

Anybody anywhere can build a server farm. It’s a great business requiring little more than a lot of big servers, a place to put them, climate control, and a few capable IT people to tend the equipment.

Where are these places? Most are in countries whose government is, by my standards, unstable — possibly dangerously so. How good is the infrastructure? Are they in the middle of a war? Are their electrical generating facilities dependable or sufficient? What protection against hackers do they provide? Are they trustworthy? They could as easily be a bunch of criminals and the data they collect is the mother lode.

I am not going to entrust what took me a lifetime to create to an unknown, nameless entity. Google, for examples, uses servers anywhere and everywhere. Your data and mine is unlikely to be in one place. It is wherever it went when you saved it.

I won’t get into how links and pointers let us retrieve data, but the potential for error, loss, and piracy is huge. So, I’m not buying into the Cloud. Call me an old cynic, but I want my own stuff on my own equipment.

16 thoughts on “Everything Is Changing: A Look at the Future While Tripping Down Memory Lane

  1. I really like your blog.. very nice colors & theme.

    Did you create this website yourself or did you hire someone to do it for you?

    Plz respond as I’m looking to design my own blog and would like to know where u got this from. appreciate it

    • I used the tools provided by WordPress and did it myself, as do most people. They have a very large selection and good support. It helps if you have a reasonably good knowledge of graphic software, but even if you don’t, you can put together a blog that looks quite professional without any prior experience or knowledge of design. Try it. You’ll like it.

  2. boB Hensler says:

    I am sort of midway between Garry and you. More toward Garry, actually, and I enjoyed the info about the cloud. I am about to dump all of my music (maybe 2,500 songs) onto the Amazon cloud because it’s just too much trouble for me to hook up my external HD just for music, then have to take it down again because Sonja wants to clean behind the couch. Music I guess I could stand losing, but not the pics. Please, not the pics. So them I keep locally here on Earth and not in the cloud.
    I’m from the age when TV was so new we used to say, “Hey, did you listen to Berle last night?” And not “did you watch Berle last night.” I wrote 12 or 13 books on a clanky old Smith Corona, and then I bought a computer. Haven’t written (published, that is) since then. Gimme my Smith Corona and couple sheets of carbon paper, and I’ll do you a book!

    • Well, J. K. Rowling wrote all of Harry Potter on paper with a pen, so whatever floats your boat! I’ll just keep my stuff in my possession for now, though I might use off site for back up to the back up. I’m just not that trusting. I don’t collect music anyhow… it’s all manuscripts and photos, and they stay with ME. For now. How old ARE we?

  3. Ron Squires says:

    Until I read this & did some googling, I didn’t realize that the very first PC I bought was an Apple clone – a Peach. Back in those days, in AU, the Company computers took up a dedicated room & ran on punch cards & Fortran, which I learned. The Peach was very basic but fast to start. From there I graduated to a Tandy TRS80, which I believe also didn’t have a hard drive, but they sold a plug in tape recorder. By clever manipulation of the Basic programs I wrote, I could use subroutines to great effect in order to overcome the petty little RAM availability

    • The first non-mainframe I worked on was the Commodore PET, but the first computer I owned personally — if it was a computer really — was the Amstrad. That was in Israel and Amstrad was made (then) in Holland. European stuff was easier to come by than American and less expensive. When I got back to the States, I got a little Apple … and stayed with Apple until finally, gave up and went PC. In between, had an Atari, a Texas Instrument something or other … a lot of DEC based machines and a variety of IBMs.

      Until I stopped working in development, my PCs (my personal machines) were built because I had friends and co workers who could build them from parts and I got much more for my always limited funds. I didn’t buy a brand name computer (other than those early Apples) again until my first Dell in the late 1990s and since then, it’s been mostly Dell and with a couple of Gateways in the mix.

      I remember the punch cards, the machine languages which are still very much in demand around here … there are a LOT of big IBM mainframes in use. They work, they are powerful, and they have a LOT of data in them that is much too important to lose … But I was never a developer or programmer. I learned to read C and C++ and some basic and visual basic, but that was just so that I could understand the people with whom I worked.

      I was always a writer specializing in explaining complicated stuff, often to people who were and are much smarter and better educated than I am. The emergence of Chromebooks and “cloud-based” apps and storage has made me sit up and take notice. I’m not going to be an early adopter … but I never say never! I may start try using both some online storage and my own external HDDs. You can never have too much security!

  4. Okay, this actually follows comments from those who are apparently computer literate, some obviously are advanced tech folks. As the computer illiterate from central casting, I enjoyed this look at the evolution of computers in our lives. I had the last typewriter in our newsroom and fearfully watched as the computers took over. Like every western we’ve ever watched, I’ve made my inevitable peace with the victors.

    • And your journey into technology isn’t over yet. The thing about THIS is that no matter what level of user you are … from “I know nothing” to “I know everything” — it’s going to ultimately affect you. Like it or not, change on this scale is going to impact us all. I personally am extremely uneasy about it.

  5. Everything is changing… and it is not.

    Go to http://www.indeed.com then search for
    COBOL
    FORTRAN

    You will be amazed.

    COBOL is being used intensively by financial institutions and… people under .mil domain.
    They still run software written in 60th — for IBM mainframes… just because IBM mainframes software is EXTREMELY FAST and EXTREMELY reliable (and hardware is still EXTREMELY expensive).

    FORTRAN — all the cool things in calculations were written in FORTRAN, and guess what… they are still being used with the same FORTRAN! Intel provides the best FORTRAN compiler!

    Being boiled in the IT soup I’m noticing that only the UI is changing… what is inside, not! 99%” of modern computers power is spend for servicing nice UI and antivirus programms.

    Looks like car company announces the new car, it is so cool outside, but inside — it is the same developed 20 years old engine running… the only difference hood it is sealed now, because elois can break it with their iPad’s “put here your fingers” habits.

    • I’m not at all surprised. It all boils down to 1s and 0s anyhow, no matter what language you use. Those huge legacy systems are way too expensive and embedded to just dump them – and they contain data that is irreplaceable. One of the products I worked on was an interface so that you could open a window from any operating system to any other operating system, making it more accesible (but not changing or replacing anything). But … how do YOU feel about storing all your “stuff” someone over which you have no control? I’m not comfortable with that. Are you?

      • One word – encryption. :)

        Yes, it is possible to break any encrypted data, but it worth time=money… and good encryption worth big time on a really fast (means ones that still occupies big rooms) computers.

        Storing data in the cloud is the best insurance against $100 HDD drives failure.

        • We should get together. Haven’t see you guys in ages … and there’s a lot of this stuff I’d like to know more about, but being out of the arena now, I no long have my fingers on the pulse. Encryption does seem like it would be worth it. I’ve been hacked enough times already to be pretty edgy about it. I don’t know if encryption would slow a really determined hacker, but I’m not a big target so I doubt anyone would waste a lot of energy to get to my stuff. I don’t have anything of particular value to anyone but me. But still … it’s a good idea. I just don’t know enough to do more than agree with you!

Comments are closed.