SPECULATING ON SNOWFALL – Marilyn Armstrong

RDP Monday: SNOW SPECULATION

We have a very favorite meteorologist, Harvey Leonard, currently with Channel 5 (ABC), but previously a colleague of Garry’s for more than 30 years. He’s a great meteorologist and can tell you — really — pretty much what’s coming.

Garry and Harvey Leonard, famed meteorologist

What he can’t tell you is exactly how much of what is coming you are going to get. Storms move faster or slower and winds push them east, west, north, or south — all of which changes your town’s “how much.” Also, your proximity to the ocean. More rain along the ocean, more snow piling up inland. We are not far from the ocean, but not close enough to get the wind from the sea. We get the other winds, the one that brings big white snow clouds.

Dogs on the sofa, gazing on snow
The deck and feeders

He did say — repeatedly — that this was a big one. We were going to get a lot of snow, no matter where we were in New England. Or for that matter, Connecticut, Rhode Island, New Hampshire, and all points north. He was figuring around a foot but upped it towards the end of the news because new maps were coming in.

We got more — as we typically do in the valley.

Dove waiting on tree limb for a shot at the feeder

Eighteen-inches in our little town, so we are in this house until the plow shows up and digs us out. My son is at work and he says if the plow doesn’t show up at his place (same plow), he can’t go home because he has nowhere to put the car.

A lot of flapping and flying going on

It’s not that the plow won’t show. He will. It’s just with this much snow on the ground, it’s going to be a long day. I’m pretty sure we are nowhere near the top of the list.

Mostly Goldfinch while I was shooting
With one incoming Goldfinch (on right)

Usually, we get big snows and it warms up the next day and everything melts. Not this time. This time, the temperature is supposed to drop to around zero (-18 centigrade) for several days. Which means this snow is going to hang around, get icy and crunchy. And it’s not a light fluffy one, either. It’s, as Harvey put it, “like oatmeal.” I like the fluffy ones much better.

So we speculated and I do thing the last thing I said to Garry before drifting off to sleep was “Maybe it won’t be as bad as we think.”

Good morning, Uxbridge

I was wrong. We speculated. I’m glad we didn’t actually gamble on our speculations. We’d have lost money on big snow.

I’d have posted this earlier, but there were pictures to take and process. There are more, but I’m tired. The birds have cold feet.

21 thoughts on “SPECULATING ON SNOWFALL – Marilyn Armstrong”

      1. We missed the last one. A lot of it seems to go north near Wisconson, or south of I-80, that is south of the lake. We are close enough to get the “Lake effect” when the wind is out of the east.

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  1. Well the snow showed up at last. In MARCH. Uh, climate change much? I’m sorry, truly. To me that kind of ‘big’ snow is depressing, but maybe for y’all it’s more peaceful. I hope for the latter. And thanks for giving the birds something to do (i.e. eat) rather than dwell on their frozen toes…

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    1. We aren’t big snow lovers. But we live in a region with snow, so it’s not like we have a choice. It certainly LOOKS pretty. The plow came, which is good because now, we can actually move the car — and Garry cleared the car, which used to be a piece of cake, but at nearly 77, not such a piece of cake anymore.

      I think unless you are serious about winter sports, or a kid, snow is just cold, wet, heavy, and a lot of extra work. I haven’t been out of the house in a few days. But now that we are dug out, I can actually leave the house! Wow!

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  2. I was reading last night about the expected cold snap in the midwest. It sounds dangerously cold in a lot of places. I guessed you would get snow as well. I guess you weren’t going to get through the whole season without one big snowstorm. I hope it will be gone by the time you need to go out.

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    1. It isn’t nearly as cold as they said it would be. We sure did get the snow, but not the deep cold, for which I’m grateful. If it stays normal winter temps, things will gradually melt, though there’s another storm forecast for the weekend. I think it might be more rain than snow, though.

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  3. Our last big snow was 34.4 inches overnight, but anything over 12 inches is a pain to deal with. I don’t blame you for staying in until the plow comes. On the bright side, the snow provides some beautiful photographic opportunities, especially for those of you who live in the woods. I love the photo of the dogs watching the snow through the window.

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    1. If it’s fluffy, it’s easy. This is wet and heavy. I thought we were going to get through the whole winter without snow. Just this one time. But this is the valley and we get snow. We got 36 inches two winters ago — twice in a single week. That was the winter we got 12 feet of snow. I know you probably get that every year. They get that in northern Maine every year too and in Vermont and many parts of Canada. When I was a lot younger, I liked it better. Now, it’s just more work than either of us has the energy to do.

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  4. While we didn’t escape the arctic air behind it, we did manage to only get an inch or two of snow from that storm when it came by here Sunday. The forecasts started off dire and then gradually went down to 1-3 inches, which usually means we end up getting hammered. I’m glad they were right. Another thing to keep in mind when it comes to predicting snow is the rainfall to snowfall conversion… it can vary wildly. Nobody cares if they predict a half inch of rain and an inch ends up falling. But in terms of snow, the difference in half an inch and a full inch of moisture can be 6-10 extra inches of snowfall alone! That is a big deal to everyone…

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